Conflicting Press Reports

Every day there are a few articles across all the papers about what's happening in the EU and every day brings a contradiction on policy.

Yesterday it was reported that Germany had bowed to France's demand that there be no treaty changes to allow for the eurozone bail-outs and new economic "governance" but  today's articles report Sarkozy has said that treaty changes will be necessary after all and that progress towards economic government of all the 27 eurostates should be strengthened.

Ms. Merkel agreed that Europe needs more integrated "economic government"—a French phrase that Germany has long resisted—while Mr. Sarkozy accepted that such coordination should take place mainly at the level of the 27-country European Union, and not, as France has insisted up to now, among the smaller circle of 16 countries that share the euro.

The rumours about a Spanish bailout persist:

In the meantime, Spain admitted that the European financial crisis is taking a toll on the country's banks, with foreign banks refusing to lend to some.  Spanish Treasury Secretary Carlos Ocana admitted officially for the first time that some Spanish banks faced a liquidity freeze in the interbank market and said the government was working to restore confidence.

There's more trouble ahead for Greece as another ratings agency, Moody's, followed S&P's lead last month and downgraded their sovereign debt to junk level.  No wonder the EU is talking about creating their own credit ratings agency!

Almost three-quarters of investors recently polled by Bloomberg News said they believed Greece would default on its debt payments. Greece's budget cuts and ailing economy are unlikely to generate enough wealth to meet interest payments, investors say.  The Greek prime minister George Papandreou also faces internal turmoil, as civil servants and public sector benefit holders radically oppose the fiscal tightening.

Since he hasn't had his name in the papers for, ooh, at least 24hrs, Barroso has grabbed some more headlines by saying that some countries in Europe could be headed for "military coups" .  Who better to rescue them from themselves than the incredibly open and democratic EU? At least any popular uprisings will give EuroGendFor a chance to test its strengths.

Mr Barroso’s warning lays bare the concern at the highest level in Brussels that the economic crisis could lead to the collapse of not only the beleaguered euro, but the EU itself, along with a string of fragile democracies.

And this farcical Franco-German political, economic and military construct is what Cameron & Co want to ally us with.

Cross-posted

Conflicting Press Reports

The New Govt & Our Armed Forces

It's hard to be completely objective about the outcome of Cameron's visit to the troops in Afghanistan but I get the impression he was more welcomed than Brown ever was.  Like the rest of us, the Forces are listening to the words and waiting to see the follow-through action but there is a sense of optimism that, this time, it might be different.

Blair and Brown blithely sent the country to war with no thought for manpower, funding or equipment and then when problems arose, they lied and covered-up, thinking of their own political reputations and their 'legacies' rather than the welfare of our troops.  Even the ineffectual Bollox Bob Ainsworth has decided the coast is clear enough for him to come out and criticise past defence policies.

I doubt Cameron & Co will go down the same route and so far he's made some encouraging noises.

"That is why we came here. That is why we cleared away those training  camps. If we left tomorrow, those training camps could come back  tomorrow, because today the Afghans aren't yet ready to look after their  own security. As soon as they are ready – and you are helping to train  them to be ready – then we can leave and go home."

Something else would help too and that's the Afghanis themselves.  If, instead of leaving their country and letting someone else fight their wars, they stayed & played a more positive role in cleaning up their politics, getting rid of the warlord mentality and building the foundations of a modern state, we'd all be out of there a lot quicker.  It's time to sort out the bumper poppy harvests too and stop the drugs trafficking.  If GMO crops are such a wonderful blessing for mankind then let Monsanto plant up Afghanistan with them, for free, as a humanitarian gesture to replace the poppy fields and give the farmers a living wage.

There still seems to be confusion over a British role in clearing Taliban-infested Kandahar.  Depending which paper you read and which day of the week it is, we're either going or we're not.  The latest is we're not but we might be.  The Sec of State for Defence, Liam Fox, says we're not but US Gen Stanley McChrystal is hinting we might.   He's also laying the ground for a longer stay in Afghanistan than any British politician wants.

Speaking at a NATO meeting in Brussels, he said: "I do think that it  will happen more slowly than we had originally intended.  It's  more important we get it right than we get it fast."
He said he  would know by the end of the year "whether it's progressing", but added:  "I don't know whether we'll know whether it is decisive."

One thing Cameron should do asap is speak to Obama - not about his unhelpful BP rhetoric - but about this:  US calls again for UK/Argentina talks.  The sovereignty of the Falklands is non-negotiable and it's about time Obama showed the quality of statesmanship we expect from the USA.   Cameron really should have nipped this one in the bud by now.


Cross-posted

The New Govt & Our Armed Forces

Middle East Build-up

From Iraq to Syria from Diego Garcia to Iran and from Turkey to Israel, a nasty picture is emerging.  One by one, events are taking place that seem destined for an inevitable confrontation in the Middle East.

Since 2003, when no WMD were found in Iraq, there has always been speculation that they'd been sent to Syria.  Now it seems there are satellite photos which support that assertion.

Turkey also seems to be positioning itself with PM Erdogan making all kinds of war-like noises.  Not only is he preparing another flotilla to challenge Israel's  blockade, to be escorted by armed Turkish warships, but he's apparently said he himself might be on board.

The prime minister's office in Ankara is forking out millions of dollars to the IHH (Insani Yardim Vakfi), the Istanbul-based terrorist group linked to al Qaeda and Hamas, with orders to purchase 8-10 large ships for a formidable fleet to challenge the Israeli Navy and its enforcement of the 20-mile blockade of the Gaza Strip.

The PM has also

... shored up his intelligence ranks ahead of his planned showdown with Israel, replacing professional directors for the first time in modern Turkish history with civilians, radical Muslims close to him personally.

Erdogan has also built up Turkey's forces in Northern Cyprus but was apparently warned off from accompanying the last Gaza flotilla by Obama and Sarkozy.  Perhaps he sees himself as another  Ataturk, father of his people?  Something's definitely going on with him but there are better, more peaceful ways he can get his name into the history books.

Two footnotes: Turkey still carries out human rights violations against the Kurds and Cameron's Conservatives still want Turkey in the EU.

UPDATE:  With thanks to Ian P-J in the comments, for the latest news:  Iran is also offering to provide military escorts

"Iran's Revolutionary Guards naval forces are fully prepared to escort  the peace and freedom convoys to Gaza with all their powers and  capabilities," Ali Shirazi, Khamenei's representative inside the  Revolutionary Guards, was quoted as saying by the semi-official Mehr  news agency.

Cross-posted

Middle East Build-up