The next Falklands crisis is bubbling away nicely. The Buenos Aires recognises the value of building international support for its claim, and Britain is more isolated in the international arena than at any time for decades.
Following a snub by Obama (and Dubya, Clinton, Bush Snr would have done the same as did Reagan), Mrs Clinton is to meet the Argentinian president Cristina de Kirchner in Urugay on March 1st.
This follows succesful Argentinian efforts to mobilise Latin American support for their Malvinas claim, and a further attempt to raise the issue at the UN. There are UN resolutions dating back to the 1960s calling for UK-Argentine talks, and I believe the US-UK invasion of Iraq invoking resolution 1441 set an uncomfortable precedent. If Britain goes to the negotiating table, then the Falklands will end up in Argentinian hands. If Britain does not go to the negotiating table, then the Falklands may well end up in Argentinian hands following a raft of UN resolutions.
The only solution is bold action, by reinforcing the Falklands through a draw-down of the Afghan deployment (hint hint, we have our own interests) and looking at a juicy carrot in the form of a South Atlantic Regional Development Fund from the oil revenues plus trade and business opportunities. Nasty, but with a bit of nice, and far from indecisive.
I bet this will flare up during the general election campaign. Cameron should be prepared...like the boy scouts.